CreditVintage / input monitoring / Synthetic example

Which inputs changed before labels matured?

Decision-time feature distributions as of 2024-10-01. This comparison uses application and feature events, with no outcome file or model fitting.

Reference applications480
Visible current applications320
Current applications not yet visible160

Reference decisions: 2023-07-01 to 2023-12-31. Current window: 2024-07-01 to 2024-12-31, restricted to decisions on or before the cutoff. Every feature must have been available by its own decision date.

Input by input

Distances range from 0 (identical empirical distributions) to 1. KS distance is the largest absolute difference between the two empirical cumulative distributions. Total variation compares the two segment proportions. Means retain source units; principal_cents is in cents.

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InputDistanceMeasureReference meanCurrent mean
utilization0.096KS distance0.511516450.46970877
debt_to_income0.057KS distance0.456303080.44372536
prior_delinquencies0.050KS distance0.529166670.45625
principal_cents0.055KS distance1602671.166666671675230.225
segment0.019Total variation——

By current origination month

Every month uses the same full reference population. Months with fewer than 20 applications have no distance estimate.

VintageApplicationsUtilizationDebt / incomePrior delinquenciesPrincipalSegment
2024-07800.1540.0670.1130.1230.100
2024-08800.1770.1130.0370.0810.000
2024-09800.1310.1790.1000.1000.025
2024-10800.0670.1350.0250.1060.000

These are marginal distribution distances, not statistical significance, model deterioration, default rates or an automatic decision rule. They do not detect every joint-distribution change. Missing decision-time features fail validation rather than being filled with zero; missing-rate trends are a separate, unimplemented check.